MPWMD 2022 SUPPLY & DEMAND FORECAST

MPWMD’s forecast is based on the AMBAG 2022 Regional Growth Forecast and uses current 5-year average water production, a measure of the total water required to “feed” the system for customer use, before losses and fire flows, as the base. Starting with three years of actual consumption data (2017, 2018, and 2019 – pre-COVID), MPWMD allocated consumption for residential and non-residential by political jurisdiction, based on the proportionate percentages of each then mapped the current base production to the same proportions.

Water Demand

At its basic level, planning water supply is being able to answer three simple questions: What is our usage today (current demand)? What will we need in the future (future demand)? and, when will we get there (growth rate)? The answers translate to how much supply will be needed each year going forward. In addition, the planner also has to examine if there is enough supply available to reliably serve the 10-Year Maximum Daily Demand (MDD) and Peak Hour Demand (PHD) in the higher demand months, per the California Code of Regulations (CCR) section 64554.

Assuming all prospective population and housing growth is captured in AMBAG’s Regional Growth Forecast and all commercial economic expansion occurs at the same rate as AMBAG’s employment projections, MPWMD offers the following water demand forecast: MPWMD Technical Memorandum: 2022 Supply and Demand Forecast.